Cover all short positions at this time. You should have profit in your TZA and BGZ trades for those of you who took advantage. While we still believe this market is headed down we may get a better buying position on our short trades in the next few days.
It's time to sell all of your remaining equities or funds within your family of funds that have equities in your retirement accounts. The risk is just too great. You could wake up some morning and see the DOW down a thousand points or more. Those of you with 401K programs move your money into short term money market accounts. Those of you who have IRA accounts, self directed IRA accounts or trading accounts who can purchase Exchange Traded Funds put 50 % of your position in TZA or BGZ. These funds will go up in value as the market goes down.
With one close below 9,835 you should be flat in your retirement accounts. If you are not, then stay long until there is a higher selling opportunity or the DOW closes below 9,835 again. This market has a limited upside and it's just a question of time before BIG MONEY sells. NCSO knows that the DOW is going down to the first objective of 9,100. The question is when? It could come any day or take as long as 30 days and we are not going to recommend getting long at these levels knowing were going lower. If the market goes up in this short term rally, it will do so without our recommendation to buy. In other words we are looking for a place to get short by purchasing BGZ for what could be a considerable move to the downside. First order of business is 9,100, 80 percent. 8,100 seventy percent and upon reaching that number there will be a seventy percent chance of seeing 7,200 on the DOW. So you see we are not concerned about this possible short term rally. The only way that NCSO is going to get long term bullish is to have two daily closes above 11,750, period. If you sold your retirement accounts like we said when the DOW reached 11,250 then you would have left very little on the table by not being long or at risk on the DOW from 11,250 to 11,750. There is a 20 percent chance on the DOW closing two days in a row above 11,750 before going down to at least 9,100. We are here to protect your life savings from depreciating in principal value. It's up to you to act.
Sell all equities and funds with equities in your retirement accounts if the DOW closes below 9,835 on any given day. A one day close is all that's needed. Money market accounts are the safest. Check the market every day around 2:30 to 2:45 central time to be sure about the close. A close below 9,835 will produce an eighty percent chance of seeing 9,100 on the DOW with minor support at 9,650. Remember, bullish any close above 9,835 and bearish on any close below 9,835.
Well guess who showed up yesterday? That's right BIG MONEY and we are glad to see them. We did not have to go as low as 9,650 before BIG MONEY decided to protect their long postions Buy back large cap funds and small cap funds for your retirement accounts now. Individual stocks to purchase are FO, GS,CAT, and SLM. For most of you, depending on what fund you came out of when the DOW reached 11,250 you have saved at least 10 points by not being at risk in the market. For a hundred thousand dollar account that's 10 percent in 21 business days and you still have 100,000.00 to invest. All we can say at NCSO is nice trade.
Our main objective at NCSO is to protect your retirement, period. Trying to bottom fish when the market goes down so you can make a profit, can be very costly. It is always best to wait for confirmation that BIG MONEY is behind the move you are in. We just simply don't have that confirmation at this time, so we are still flat our positions and in short term money market accounts. We have been since we called for this correction to happen at 11,250 on the DOW. If BIG MONEY shows up to support their already long position we will be the first to let you know. If BIG MONEY doesn't show up the Dow will drift up and down within this trading range of 9,825 and 11,250. We expect to see the market go below 9,825 down to 9,650 where BIG MONEY may be supporting their long positions. We will have to wait and see. Regardless of what happens a lot of you are flat or in short term funds a lot higher on the market and that's what we like to see. You are increasing your retirement accounts by an unbelievable percentage by not being at risk as the market goes down. How much is that worth?
We were stopped out of our FO trade with a nice profit and didn't do as well on our stop with EXXI. We are still long CYTX. The market is having the correction we have been warning you about since 01/05/10. The good thing about this move is, so far BIG MONEY hasn't sold. The DOW will go down and test the 9,850 level again. At this time it is difficult to tell if BIG MONEY will be a buyer just below that number or not. If they do it will be around 9,650. We will be watching. Stay in short term money market funds or T-Bills that are safe in your retirement accounts until this correction passes. Those of you who have trading accounts or an IRA, we will give you some trades to play on the way down such as BGZ when the time is right. And finally we would like to thank those that follow NCSO. We know several of you that have followed our advice in your retirement accounts and have been able to save them from depreciation and that makes us very happy.
I hope you sold your mutual funds and any other equities in your retirement accounts yesterday when the Dow reached 11,250. If you didn't and you get another chance you need to take it. I will say this for the last time. There is an eighty percent chance of seeing a major correction on the Dow and other related markets when the Dow reaches 11,250 to 11,750. That means that the Dow can go down to the first objective of 10,100 very easily without any trouble after reaching a high of 11,250 to 11,750 or any where in between. NCSO normally doesn't post counts up or down unless there is an eighty percent chance of meeting that objective but in this case we will. Failure to close above 11,750 two consecutive days in a row will produce enough count to the downside to have a test of 7,200 on the Dow. The percentage will be sixty percent to start with. That's why it is so important to let other investors take the risk from 11,250 to 11,750 on the Dow. If the Dow closes above 11,750, simply buy your equities back using 11,750 as a stop to get out. We have a stop in FO at 53.00 or we will sell at 60.00 which ever occurs first. (see 03/10/ 10 forecast). We are still long CYTX with very little exposure after selling half our position at 9.40 (see 01/20/10 forecast). CYTX should be making anther run at 10.00. We like our position. We are still long EXXI with our stops in at 17.50.
If it looks like the market is going to close below 4.50 on CYTX today, it will be the second consecutive daily close below that number and we will sell our position and get flat. There will be a better buying opportunity on this stock in the future and we will keep you posted. EXXI is finally on the move in the right direction after falling to major support of 17.50. We look for it to go up from here. Our objective to the upside is 32.00. FO is steadily climbing to its objective of 63.00 and you should add to the position when you get a chance. The DOW is doing what it's suppose to do, go up and meet its objective of 11,325. We can't emphasize the importance of selling all equities in retirement accounts when the DOW reaches 11,250. If you want to save your retirement accounts from falling in value then sell all equities and convert into short term investments within your family of funds. If the DOW closes above 11,750 two days in a row, we will simply buy them back, using two daily closes below 11,750 as a stop. The chance of seeing a correction to the downside when the DOW reaches 11,250 to 11,750 is 80%. The severity of the correction depends on several factors. We will let you know when it happens.
Your stop on CYTX will be two consecutive daily closes below 4.50. CYTX has fallen further than it should have and the market has not rejected these lower prices. That means lower prices until BIG MONEY comes in. Do not add to the position at this time but hold what you have. The Dow is going to 11,250 to 11,750 and NCSO expects a correction at those levels or any where in between. It could be major, we will have to wait and see. Protect your retirement accounts that are in equities and move to short term investments within your family of funds. There is usually no fee when you do this. Look at it as insurance against a possible large move to the downside on all stocks. If the Dow gets back on top of 11,750 then just simply put your money back into equities. You would have left very little on the table by doing this even if the Dow continues to go up. FO continues to climb and meet its objective of 63, so stay with this trade. Exxi is just sitting there and not doing very much. We will give it a little more time, it should start moving up any time now.
The Dow looks good and is in good shape to make a run at 11,250 to 11,750. We have said all along that you should be flat or in short term investments for your retirement accounts when the Dow reaches the first of these levels and that will not change. One stock to purchase is FO. NCSO has a count to 63 and as of this writing it is at 46.50. We recommend buying 50% of your position now and the other 50% if it backs up to 44.50.Your stop will be two daily closes below 44.00. Stay with your CYTX positions and be prepared to purchase more if you get the chance at 6.00 to 5.80. If CYTX goes there it wont be there long so have your orders in before hand. EXXID's symbol has gone back to EXXI and you should stay with your position.
The Dow closed above 10,100 on the 11th and most of you went back into your large cap funds for your retirement as you should have. We are looking for the Dow to go to the next objective which is 11,250 and we will get flat there on all equity positions except CYTX and EXXID. The dollar has broken through resistance to the upside, which is a sign of strength. Because of that we are still flat GLD. Don't worry its not going anywhere as long as the dollar index stays above 80.00. We are keeping a close eye on this because GLD will become a good investment in the future.
We have had two closes below 10,100 on the Dow and you should be in short term funds within your family of funds in your retirement accounts for protection against a bigger move to the downside. However, if the Dow goes back up and closes above 10,100 one time, go back into your large cap funds. BIG MONEY has not sold and until it does the downside is very limited. Do Not be short any large cap stocks or long any bearish ETF's at this time. We at NCSO are not convinced that this market is going down yet. There are a few systems that NCSO looks at and within each system are several patterns. Only one pattern in one system is pointing down. We simply need more data before we recommend being short. Stay with your CYTX purchases and add on at 6.00 to 5.80 if you get the chance. If you didn't purchase EXXID before, it's time to do so. All trades should be measured by the amount of risk you take. The closer you are to your stop when you initiate your trade is the lowest amount of risk. The stop on EXXID is two consecutive daily closes below 17.50. One of the keys to successful trading is knowing where those stops should be. We don't guess at NCSO.
Most of you know that NCSO tracks BIG MONEY. Big Money can come in a variety of different ways but will always have an effect. An individual with deep pockets, a group of people with their resources combined or a research corporation that has a lot of followers can be Big Money. The latter has now happened twice to CYTX. A foolish company recommended dumping CYTX last week and it sold off more than it should have. Whether intentional or not this has created a better buying opportunity, not only for people who follow NCSO, but for those who follow this foolish company. You should own some shares of CYTX. You could wake up some morning and see the price of this stock at 16 to 20 dollars a share. CYTX is a speculative stock so you don't want to put any more into it than your willing to risk. This is why risk management is so important. If you own CYTX and are looking to add to the position, if you get the opportunity add on at 6.00 to 5.80 a share. Remember to get flat retirement accounts in equities and move into short term funds within your family of funds if the Dow closes Monday 02/01 below 10,100 and wait for further instructions. EXXI is now EXXID because of the reverse split and has closed above 17.50 a share. It should be bought with your stop being two daily consecutive closes below 17.50.
We were trying to wait until the end of the month before publishing but the market in general is not going to let us. Sell all retirement accounts that are in equities and move into short term money market accounts within your family of funds if the Dow closes two days in a row below 10,100. Until then, stay in large cap equities. BIG MONEY is still on the long side of this market and until they sell this market will have a limited downside. It is typical for BIG MONEY to buy, not sell below support which is 10,100. If the market is going to have a correction without BIG MONEY selling, it will find support just below 9,650 or 9,100. This is not the big move to the downside that everyone is talking about. This market is going higher and the sooner you figure that out the better off your going to be. For those of you who took our advise and sold CYTX at 9.20 to 9.50 congratulations you hit a home run. Now it's time to hit another. Buy CYTX at 7.60 to 7.40 today or tomorrow. Another stock we are going to recommend if it closes above 3.50 tomorrow is EXXI. Pick up a thousand or so shares, not because of the reverse split but because it has an 80% chance of doubling in price in a short time period. As most of you know we at NCSO are all about time value of money.
For those of you who purchased CYTX we are going to sell 50% of our position from 9.25 to 9.50. Those of you who bought from 5.00 to 6.00 a share will still have some risk but not much. If you're willing to risk all that you made and try to hit a homerun, this is the stock to do it. Resistance is 10.00. Remember to get flat equity funds in your retirement accounts when the Dow reaches 11,250 to 11,750. The correction is coming. Tell your family and friends . If I'm wrong just simply buy them back on two daily closes above 11,750. It won't cost that much more but you would have insured yourself from a possible major move to the downside. There is a 20% chance I'm wrong.
We head from a few who follow NCSO this past week. Returns range from 12% to 35%. Some trade more than others and some do some trades outside of NCSO's recommendations. The main thing was a good return on increased assets and being insured against the market having a major correction. Increased assets means for those who took our advise 07/ 30/ 08 when the Dow was at 11,750 and sold their retirement accounts, had up to twice as much to reinvest than those who didn't. The insured part comes from getting flat on two daily closes below 7,200, 8,100, 9,100, 9,650, and 10,350 all the way up. How can you equate that into a return? I can in one word, PRICELESS. The possibility of a secondary test of 7,200 or 6,469 existed on each one of those numbers. We are now in a higher range and the threat is even greater at these higher levels. Be sure to be flat on all equity accounts when the Dow reaches 11,250 through 11,750. At any one of these points and in between the market will correct to one or all of the numbers you see above. It is still possible to have a secondary test of 6,469. As to the accuracy of the forecasts of NCSO i will put them up against anyone or any corporation. I encourage you to scroll down from the beginning 07/08 and read just how accurate this free website has been. Please tell others about it. Word of mouth is the only advertisement we have.
We have only heard from a few concerning last years returns. As soon as we here from the majority we will post you. We finally'got a breakout with volume on the DOW to the upside. The next objective to the upside is 11,360. Smart money will be flat from 11,250 to 11,750 and let others take the risk. DO NOT be long equities from 11,250 to 11,750 with your retirement accounts. Convert into short term money market accounts within your family of funds and wait for further instructions. GLD has opened too high the first business day of the year and we will wait for a pullback around 107.50 and take a look at it then. Still long CYTX.
We are selling GLD this morning and regrouping for the new year. Its been a great year with great returns. I hope you had one as well. Still long CYTX.
As mentioned on 12/14/09 we were looking to purchase GLD back around 105 and we did yesterday and today. The dollar is at resistance and GLD has a count up to 125. The stop will be two daily closes below 105. For those of you following CYTX, the market has given you an opportunity to purchase shares below 6.00. I hope you took advantage of it.
We have sold our GLD position and will look to buy back around 105.00. Still flat the DOW until we get a breakout on e way or the other. We will add to our position of CYTX at $6.00 if we get a chance.
The Dow has been trading for 20 business days in a narrow range. The low being 10,171 and the high being 10,516. The question is, is it trading side ways to relieve the overbought condition or is it getting top heavy and in need of a correction? The answer is BIG MONEY hasn't sold and that means it's going higher. A breakout to the downside, meaning a close below 10,171 without BIG MONEY buying could produce a correction as low as 9,100. A breakout or close above 10,516 would produce the next level of resistance to the upside which is 11.360. For this reason if the Dow closes below 10,350 for the second day in a row today, we will stay flat until we get a breakout one way or the other. GLD has a count to 128.00. Buy now and risk one daily close below 110.00 as a stop. If it closes below that get out, but be prepared to purchase it back on a one day close above 110.00.
Well we are long again because of the two daily closes above 10,350 on the Dow. We are in a trading range of 10,350 being the low and 11,750 being the high. There is plenty of room to the upside to make a lot more money. Most of the ETF's will go up in this ralley. BGU and TNA are a couple. One stock we recommend that could double in as little as 90 days is CYTX. It has a count up to $10.00 a share and that's just to start. If it can get on top of that it can go to $20.00 a share without any problem. CYTX closed 12/02/09 at $5.88 a share. The stop will be two daily closes below $4.60.
After being stopped out on the close friday we are long again BGU and large cap funds. We will stay with the system no matter what. Sure sometomes the market will go up and down and sometimes get us in and out, but it's better to be safe than sorry. This market can turn any time and go down 1000 points and then some. By trading these support and resistance levels the way we do, with two consecutive daily closes above or below a particular number we cut the risk of losing what we have gained. Still long GLD .
Well we are here! The market has closed two days in a row above 10,350 putting it in a trading range of 10,350 being the low and 11,750 being the high with minor resistance at 11,360. The Dow has gone down from 11,750 to 6,469 and back up again to 10,350 without a secondary test or correction. Who would have thought. We did 02/06/09 ( scroll down). The Dow has taken everyone by surprise by being here. Now that it is don't think it can't go higher. The reason it's up here is because BIG MONEY hasn't sold, plain and simple. Until they do this market is going higher. Reinvest retirement accounts into large cap funds and gold funds. Gold has a count to $1,300 an ounce and we expect to see it soon. Your stop on your retirement accounts will be two consecutive daily closes below 10,350.
We got close enough to our objective of 10,350 and are now flat all stocks and stock funds. We are still long GLD and will stay that way. We are looking for a correction in the Dow maybe as low as 9,100. We will have to wait and see. Aggressive traders can purchase BGZ for the move down, using a stop of two daily closes above 10,350.
The Dow has entered into a correction faze. The question is how far will it correct. The true answer is the first order of business which is a count down to 9,500 and assuming two daily closes below 9,650 the next objective would be 9,100 which is major support. Gold still looks good as long as you don't get two daily closes below 1033.00 on the lead contract or the same below 100.00 for GLD on stocks. But remember until you get two daily closes below 9,650 on the Dow the objective to the upside is 10,350.
A shakeout has occurred at 9,650 on the Dow and it caught us in the trap. We took a small loss on our BGZ trade and went long BGU looking for 10,350. For those of you who took our advice on Gold 04/14/09 (scroll down) keep the trade and ad to it if you can. As mentioned, there is now a count to 1,300.00 on the lead contract on Gold. Your stop would be a one day close below 1,033.00. Stock players can purchase GLD and use a stop of 100.00 in the same manner.
Well, we got it handed to us with a little over a 4 point loss. It seems the market sometimes will wait for days or even weeks and do all the right things to get you in so it can go the other way. It happens and if you trade for a long period of time it will happen to you. This is why stops are so important. We are flat looking to buy BGZ with 50% of the position today. The other 50% will be added as close to 9,650 as possible. The stop will be a one day close above 9,650.
We have had two closes above 9,650 and had a light volume test backing up to that number. We are in a trading range of 9,650 to 10,350.You should be a buyer today of BGU. Your stop would be 1 day close below 9,650. For those of you who took our advise 10/13/08 (scroll down) and went back into Mutual Funds for retirement or are just long stocks from then, you should sell all of your retirement accounts and get into cash as the Dow approaches 10,300. This market is due a correction and it could be a big one. If the Dow happens to get on top of 10,350 by closing two days in a row and having a successful light volume test of that number, then the next objective would be 11,750. If the Dow closes below 9,650 any time sell all accounts and convert into cash waiting for further instructions.
We are taking profits this morning on our BGZ trades. The Dow isn't backing up like it should after going to resistance. BIG MONEY has not sold so we will get flat waiting on the market to tell us what to do. Strange things have happened in the markets going into labor day Holiday. It's best to be flat unless we get two daily closes above 9,650.
Buy 50% of your position now in BGZ. We will put the other 50% on if the DOW goes to 9,625 to 9,650 using a one day close above 9,650 as a stop loss.
The Dow has entered into a smaller trading range. The high being 9,650 and the low being 8,877. If the Dow goes down first to 8,877 we will be buyers of stocks to go long and of course BGU. If however the Dow goes to 9,650 we will be sellers of stocks on the short side and buyers of SDS and BGZ which go up in price as the Dow and S&P go down. Until then there is nothing to do. The stop on the high side will be one daily close above 9,650 and to the downside one daily close below 8,877.
Take profits now! We just can't risk the profits we have made since 05/04. The Dow will probably go higher to the 9,600 range but our risk is too great to hold on for another 200 points, especially since that's where we want to short the market. Only on two daily closes above 9,650 will we become bullish to 10,300. BIG MONEY sold a small amount Friday showing us that we are getting close. As we have said before, our strategy is taking as much as we possibly can out of the market in the shortest amount of time period. While profitable, these trades have just taken too long.
We finally got the move on the Dow to 9,100 that should have happened in May or June. We expect to see 9,600 soon. We will be taking profits from 9,550 and up waiting for the market to tell us what to do. Two daily closes above 9,650 will get us bullish to 10,300 on the Dow. Those of you still holding the BGU trade from 07/13 have at least a 10 point profit and will have a lot more at 9,550. We were stopped out of our trade with a 9 point profit in as many days. BIG MONEY is still in this market on the long side. That's why its going higher. But make no mistake about it, this is a bear market rally and eventually BIG MONEY will take profits, so don't get married to those positions forever.
There really hasn't been a lot to write about. The Dow has traded 51 straight business days between 8,100 and 8,877. Pretty dull considering the volatility we had been seeing. We are still in a trading range of 8,100 to 9,650 with minor resistance at 9,100. We have been stopped out of several positions but that gives us an opportunity to reinvest at support which is where we are now. BGU is a good investment using two daily closes below 8,100 as a loss stop.
As mentioned 05/04, stops must be used. As a rule a stop should be added when a stock of less than $10.00 goes up 10%, in other words a $5.00 stock goes up 50 cents then you should put a sell stop at a break even. If the stock goes up another 50 cents you raise your stop another 50 cents. Insuring a 50 cent profit. If your dealing with a $10.00 stock or higher then deal with points. Example; if you purchase a stock at $20.00 and it goes to $21.00 you would put your initial stop at $20.00, your entry level. This insures a break even trade. If the stock moves up another point to $22.00 you would raise your stop to $21.00 insuring a 1 point profit. We are still long four of the eight stocks we recommended on 05/04. They are FO, CRMT, STV, and MSFT. We will stay with these stocks until we get a profit or the DOW closes below 8,100 two days in a row.
The Dow closed above 8,100 stopping us out of our BGZ trade with a little over 3 point loss. Because of a second day close with follow through to the upside we are short term bullish. The trading range we just entered 8,100 being the low and 9,650 the high with minor resistance at 9,100. Stocks to purchase, FO, F, CRMT, DD, MHK, CAT, STV, and MSFT. All of these stocks technically look very good in a thousand point rally with FO having a count to 54. It closed Friday 05/01 at 42.05. It is important to point out there is no longer a count down to 6,100. While it has been negated, it doesn't mean we can't get a new count down. As the market moves up on each of these stocks it is wise to use sell stops in order to insure a profit. Were not completely out of the woods yet but we should be able to make quite a few points in this rally. The initial stop will be two daily closes below 8,100.
As mentioned we needed to see two daily closes above 8,100 in order to see the next level of 9,100. We got two in a row but no follow through to the upside. The Dow fell back into the 7,800 range after closing above resistance which is very negative. While we are flat, we are looking for a place to sell. The Dow has a new trading range with 8,100 being the high end and 7,200 being the low with 7,449 being a minor support level. I know it gets a little complicated but with this move we had today the market is going down to test minor or major support. The question is will they hold? The count down to 6,100 is still there and with this move we saw today 04/20/09 we expect to see it. Buy BGZ and risk one daily close above 8,100 for a stop.
When the market gets to resistance you sell. If you had purchased certain stocks that we suggested on 03/23/09 as of today, 16 trading days later, you would have a little over 39 points profit. If the Dow opens above 8,100 in the morning, 04/14/09 then stay with these trades anticipating a close above 8,100. If the Dow doesn't close above 8,100 then get flat and take your profits. On the other hand if the Dow opens below 8,100 go ahead and take your profits immediately and wait for the close. Remember we need to see 2 consecutive daily closes above 8,100 to see the next level of 9,100. You can always buy them back knowing their going higher. Gold has a count up to $1030.00 and if it can get on top of $1033.00 with 2 daily closes above that Gold will have a count to $1300.00. The stop will be 2 daily closes below $846.00. Gold closed today at $894.00
Well, we have taken another loss in this trading range but we will continue to play the odds. BIG MONEY bought Friday and today, Monday the 23rd. That's good, this country needs a little something to be positive about. Two daily consecutive closes above 8,100 will negate the count to 6,100 and we would love to see it. There are three major resistance levels on the way back up. They are 8,100, 9,100 and 9,650. I will also tell you there is a chance if the market can get on top of 9,650 of seeing 10,300. So as you can see this could be a good rally and we need it. Stocks to buy GS, IBM, GE, BAC, FO, SPY and BGU to name a few.
We are waiting for the Dow to retrace back to 7,200 with 50% of our position going into SDS or BGZ. We will add another 50% at 7,400 with a stop for both positions on two consecutive daily closes above 7,449. Count to 6,100, 80%.
Well we got it handed to us. We took losses on all but two of our mentioned stocks. To put it simple this market is in trouble. Count down now to 6,100, 80%. There is another count brewing to 5,600 but is not quite 80% yet. I'll keep you posted. We are now flat looking to purchase BGZ which is an ETF that goes up in value as the Dow and S&P go down if we can get a favorable opening on 03/02/09. Close proximity to Friday's close which was 7,062. This is a good place to sell all remaining mutual funds and stocks in your retirement account. If we close back above 7,200 then just buy them back. If your thinking it can't go down much further, your badly mistaken. As mentioned 02/06/09 update we are now in a new trading range with 7,200 being the high and 1,000 being the low. Think it can't get there? Did you believe we could get here? I'm not saying that were going to 1,000 but it is possible. Can you afford it if it does? Besides you can buy all of them back on two daily closes above 7,200. All you would be doing is protecting yourself from further losses.
The SPRING has occurred without going to 6,600 which means were still going there. However, maybe not at this time. We went long yesterday, looking for a close above 7,200 and we got it. The problem is Nov. 2008 low of 7,449 is very close to 7,200.So were really not going to be extremely bullish until we get two consecutive daily closes above 7,449. I have never seen a resistance level so close to a major support level. Very unusual, but if we can get on top of 7,449 the Dows count to the upside will be 8,000 with the possibility of seeing 9,600. The problem is the count to 6,600 will still be there even at 9,600. There's nothing wrong with making money up and down. BIG MONEY has not covered their shorts but two daily closes above 7,449 and they will. Our stop on this position is one daily close below 7,200. Stocks to purchase FAS, BGU, TNA, GS, IBM, FO, SPY and a sleeper stock LDK.
Well we're finally here. We predicted this move with a count down to 7,200 on the Dow Oct. 13th 2008 and it's taken this long to get here. We have not invested 50% of our position yet. We are waiting to see what happens over the next day or two. What we would like to see in order to get bullish is the Dow to open down big today, to a 6,600 handle and close on the highs of the day with heavy volume. Then in the next day or two, close above 7,200. For those of you stuck at the top or the 11,000 area, this is what you want to see. There is always a secondary test of a major break. In this case 7,200. So even if we go down to the 6,600 level the market will come back up to 7,200. The question is how long will it take and will it close above it. I don't know, but the only count I have at this time is 6,600. It can come now or later. I would prefer to see it now and close back above 7,200 and have a bull market for a couple of years. If this market doesn't get back on top of 7,200, the market and the economy as well as our way of living will change dramatically. I'll keep you posted.
This was a good move last week on the Dow down to 7,249. It was healthy for the market. The question is, did BIG MONEY cover their shorts and go long? The answer is NO. The key to any kind of a rally from here will be confirmed with two consecutive daily closes above the previous low which was 7,449. There will be an 80% chance at that point of seeing 8,000 or better. The stop will be one daily close below 7,449. The big question that everyone is asking is, is this the bottom? The answer is NO. We have said many times our strategy is based on knowing where BIG MONEY is and investing in front of them. But that doesn't mean we can't make money on these small rallies of 500 to 1000 points. We would love to see the market rally from here to 8,000 or so. We would then be very happy to short the market at that point looking to take out this low of 7,249. The other scenario is we don't close two days in a row above 7,449 and we close below 7,200 two days in a row. That would produce a count down on the Dow to 6,600, 80%. A lot of things can happen at major support so stay in touch with this website frequently, because things can change fast.
Well we didn't get to buy SDS or BGZ because the Dow never got to 9,225 and we still will if it gets there before going to 7,200. Some of you are buying mutual funds for long term positions against our wishes. Be warned, investing your money at this time is the wrong thing to do. In the crash of 29 a lot of people lost a lot of money but more people lost more money in 32 and 33 when they thought the market had bottomed. This market has been trading sideways for 17 weeks for one reason, to relieve the oversold condition so it can continue down further. I've hesitated from telling you what would happen if 7,200 or close proximity doesn't hold because up until now there hasn't been a reason. For those of you buying now, you leave me no choice. The Dow has two prominent trading ranges, one is 7,200 to 11,750. The other is 7,200 to 1000. When the Dow goes down to 7,200 and doesn't hold, it will then have a 20% chance of having what is called a SPRING. A SPRING is exactly what it sounds like it is, a move through major support that makes a lot of weak long positions sell out. This is when BIG MONEY is buying, the SPRING occurs and your right back on top of 7,200. This is one of the most bullish signs that can happen and the Dow will move considerably higher. Possibly to the higher end of the trading range which is 11,750. But what if the market goes through 7,200, say down to 6,600 and fails to come back through and get back on top of 7,200? This is one of the most bearish things that can happen. You would then be in the trading range of 7,200 being the high and 1,000 being the low. Do you really want to be invested at 8,000 or higher before we see what's going to happen at 7,200? If the 20% SPRING doesn't occur, you will have an 80% chance of seeing the lower end of the trading range which is 1,000. It's your money. The count down on the Dow is 7,200. 80%
We were glad to hear from quite a few of you who had great returns for 2008. The lowest return we heard from was 26% and that was after taking some pretty healthy losses before we came on line in July 2008. That does not include saving 30 to 50% of retirement principal by selling all mutual and stock funds in that same month. The reason these strategies are successful is because they tell you when to get out. Anyone can tell you to get in with a buy and hold strategy and eventually be correct. We all know the markets don't always go down. In fact 75% of the time the markets go up. This is why you have buy and hold strategies offered by brokers and money managers. The percentage is on their side. We have just one problem with this strategy. You can do it a lot cheaper yourself. You don't need a so called professional who can only tell you when to get in and earn commissions or a management fee to manage your money. If your paying someone to manage the most precious thing you have other than family, then they should be able to tell you when to get out. Most can't, because they just don't know. They have been taught one thing. The market over time will always go up. Looking at history they are right. The problem is there have been several down markets since 1929 and if you weren't wiped out it took several years for you to recover. Not to mention you could probably have retired if you had most of your money to reinvest at the lows. If your broker can only provide you with information to get in the market and not get out then most likely your paying them too much. True professionals know both, although there are very few and you as an individual will probably never get the information you need except from someone like NCSO. To put it simple, your money is just not Big enough. These professionals invest billions and literally, when the time is right, can control some very large markets. We call these professionals BIG MONEY. We track BIG MONEY and try to stay in front of them. Were not always right. That's why knowing where to get out is so important. We are still flat looking for 9,225 on the Dow to purchase 50% of our position in SDS or BGZ and the other 50% at 9,450 with a stop of two consecutive daily closes above 9,650. Once again, BIG MONEY has not covered their shorts and until they do this market has limited upside. Count down to 7,200 on the Dow. 80%
The Dow has established a trading range. For the last nine weeks, for the most part it has traded between 7900 and 9600 with a couple of daily exceptions. While we are flat looking to purchase 7200 with 50% of our position, it is possible to see the Dow reach the upper part of the trading range. If it does we will take advantage of it and purchase SDS or BGZ if the Dow reaches 9225 with 50% of our position. The other 50% will be added at 9450. Our stop will be two daily closes above 9650. BIG MONEY has not covered their shorts and this little Bull rally fits perfectly into their plan which is at least 7200. From some of the feedback I've been getting, I must point out a couple of things. There are three positions when trading, long, short, and flat. Yes, flat is a position. You don't have to be in the market all of the time. Sometimes it's better to be flat and let the market tell you what it's going to do than you trying to tell the market what to do. Usually the latter ends up being a losing trade. I update the website when I know what I'm talking about, not until then. If you have a particular question between updates click on CONTACT NCSO at the website and ask. I'll promptly return your E-Mail.
We still expect to see 7200 on the Dow but the risk is too great not to take a profit on our ETF's. As mentioned on our last update Nov. 2, if you were able to buy SDS on Nov. 3rd at 85.00 and add to the position at 81.00 or lower on Nov. 4th, then you would have a substantial profit. Yesterdays close was 127.97. All I can say is nice trade. Even if you get out of the position today at 120.00 that's 37 points in 15 business days. If there is anyone else out there that's forecasting this market any better I don't know who it is. Now being in a flat position, we are looking to invest 50% of our portfolio when the Dow reaches 7200. Most likely we will buy a few of the new ETF's that give us better leverage. Just as SDS was good on the way down, BGU,TNA, and FAS will be great on the way up. But make no mistake about it, the first move down to 7200 will be short lived so be ready to take profits. As mentioned many times BIG MONEY should cover their shorts below 7200. Possibly as low as 6600.
The count on the Dow to 7,200 is still there and we expect to see it soon. For those of you who can take advantage, purchase SDS now and risk 2 daily closes above 9,700. SDS will go up in value as the Dow and S&P go down. The Dow is at 9,325. Buy 50% of your position now and if the Dow goes higher the first few days of November you can add more to the position. This will be a big and very quick move so take advantage of it. Big Money has not covered their shorts and until they do this market still has a very limited upside. As mentioned before, we expect to see Big Money cover just below major support which is 7,200.
Count Down to 7,200 on the Dow, Stop loss, 2 consecutive daily closes above 10,300.
As mentioned before, the markets are very volatile and are making big swings. With all that's going on what else would you expect? We still expect to see the objective met to 7,200 on the Dow, the question is how long. The answer, I don't know. All I do know is until BIG MONEY covers their shorts and goes long this market has a limited upside. As of today they have not. We have said before the key to successful investing is knowing where BIG MONEY is. Most don't have a clue. BIG MONEY controls the markets and if your on the same side, you win. It's that simple. Buy SDS as close to 10,300 on the Dow as you can or I should say as much as your willing to risk. With this market it could be there in 5 minutes. Being a 100% invested in cash is good right now even if you don't get in something like SDS on the way down. The main thing is your principal is not at risk. It will give you a huge advantage when it's time to buy.
Congratulations to those of you who took our advice the first week of July and sold your Mutual Funds from retirement accounts. Depending on which funds they were you are 40 to 60% better off than those who didn't. You now have 100% of your retirement to reinvest when the time is right and it's getting close. For those of you who took our advice and bought Bear Funds, another congratulations. Our recommendation of purchasing SDS on July 17th at 69.50 is a big winner. SDS as of 10/10 went as high as 128.91 and closed at 110.88. By taking our advice some of you have made 40 or more points on the market going down in less than 3 Months. How's that for an annual return? Now it's getting close to reversing the position. We fully expect our forecasted objective of 7,500 on the Dow to be met and then some. But if these markets are going to survive and we believe they will, the Dow will find major support at 7,200. It doesn't matter if it goes through that number for a short time because that's where Big Money will be buying everything they can get their hands on. The problem is the market may not stay down there long enough for you to purchase what we recommend so here is what we suggest you do. As the Dow goes through 7,500 down to 7,200 we highly recommend purchasing Large Cap, Blue Chip Funds to go back into your retirement accounts. If you are able to buy individual stocks we have narrowed down a few that are heavily oversold and will move 10 points or more very quickly. They are BAC, GS, C, SPY, SOHU, ZOLT, GE, MSFT, T, DIA, XOM as long as crude stays above 78.50, HD, UTX and DD to mention a few. SDS and SKF were good buys as the market was coming down, they will be excellent sells as the market goes up. We believe 7,200 on the Dow will become a major base for years to come so just as selling everything when the Dow closed below 11,750, it is now time to buy everything as the Dow approaches 7,200. As mentioned earlier it is possible to penetrate 7,200 and go down to the 6,600 or so level because of momentum but over a very short period of time it will return and close above 7,200. So don't worry if it goes through 7,200. Just look at it as being another buying opportunity. If for some reason or another the Dow opens below 7,200 BUY, BUY, BUY you will never get an opportunity like that again.
The Dow met it's first objective today of 9,950 that we forecasted July 16th. It now has a second objective of 7,500 and we expect to see it soon. Market manipulation by the Govt has caused severe volatility, in other words huge moves up and down resulting in more stop losses in our forecasts, especially in the bank stocks. But that's to be expected in this one of a kind market. The main thing is we didn't put on a trade until we got close to the stop, resulting in very little loss. A classic example of how a trade should work can be seen in the Wheat forecast of 6.50 on 07/16 with 2 daily closes above 9.20 as a stop loss. On 08/21/08 the lead contract on Wheat closed at 9.22 for the day, knowing that another consecutive close above 9.20 would negate the count, in other words low risk, high reward, the trade should have been executed at 9.20 on a short sale. Wheat did not close the next day above 9.20 resulting in a huge profit when Wheat met its objective of 6.50 on 10/02/08. This is the way it should be done. We expect to see more volatility in the markets as more banks go under or are bought out. These are tough times and it's going to get a lot tougher in the weeks ahead.
RTP Ojective Met
RTP count down to 352. Stop loss. 1 day close above 395
BAC, count down to 14.50. Stop 2 daily closes above 34.25
Bulls never want to give up but the Bears will almost always win. The reason for this is because there is very little new money on the Bull side. When the Bulls finally give up they add fuel to the fire and the markets continue down further. Most of the money is already invested so there is very little buying power left. When Big Money sees an opportunity to leave that invested money behind, it will do so. Big Money invests huge amounts by the selling of assets and shorting the market, leaving the average person behind and asking " What happened to my investment"? This is why the market goes down faster than it goes up. Knowing where Big Money is, is the key to successful investing.
Crude Oil, count up to 152 lead contract. Stop, 2 daily closes below 121.60
Euro, count up to 1.62730. Stop 2 consecutive daily closes below 1.48000
For those of you who were unable to sell your retirement funds in the last move up to 11,698 on the Dow, you now have a second chance. Sell all retirement funds and convert into cash or Bear funds. If the Dow closes 2 days in a row above 11,750 just simply reverse your position and go long. You would have left very little on the table. You also would have protected or hedged your retirement for what I believe to be a large drop in the Dow coming very soon.
We finally got our move on the Dow back up to 11,698. I hope all of you were able to sell your retirement funds and convert into cash or better yet purchase Bear funds or stocks that go up as the Dow or S&P go down. We fully expect to see the objective met on the Dow down to its first objective to 9,950. The reason I say first objective is because there is a second objective down to 7,400. Its not quite 80% yet and I'll keep you posted. But make no mistake about it we are in a bear market now. Recent bank failures and more to come, the mortgage crisis, inflation with higher interest rates coming, and the shrinking dollar are not good signs for a strong stock market.
JP Morgan count down to 26.50 Stop loss 2 consecutive daily closes above 43.20
CME count down to 267 Stop loss 2 consecutive daily closes above 346
OZRK count down to 6.00 Stop loss 2 consecutive daily closes above 24.50
Watch the Dow and be ready to sell all stocks and mutual funds as it approaches 11,600 to 11,750. T-Bills are a safe investment. If you can, purchase Bear funds for your retirement accounts or the symbol SDS, they are good investments in a falling market. Remember we will only become bullish on the Dow with 2 consecutive daily closes above 11,750.
Dow count down to 9,950, Stop loss 2 daily closes above 11,750, 80%
Merrill Lynch count down to 20.00, 2 daily closes above 44.00, 80%
Citigroup count down to 11.75, Stop loss 2 daily closes above 21.80, 80%
Lehman count down to 4.00, Stop loss 2 daily closes above 37.00, 80%
General Motors count down to 6.00, Stop loss 2 daily closes above 17.00, 80%
Corn count up to 8.00 on lead contract, Stop loss 2 daily closes below 6.50, 80%
Wheat count down to 650, Stop loss 2 daily closes above 920, 80%
Soybeans count up to 18.00, Stop loss 13.75, 80% Once again it is important to point out when trading any market you should always consider risk verses reward. Never risk more than what you can make on the trade. In other words don't trade in the middle of the count and the stop loss. The closer you are to the stop loss when you execute will be your highest reward and lowest risk. If you have any questions or special needs, feel free to E-Mail me.
Those of you who have retirement accounts in mutual funds should consider selling those funds and purchasing 30 T-Bills if and when the Dow returns to 11,600 to 11,750. It has an 80% chance of not closing above 11,750 two days in a row when it gets there and at that point returning and taking out the previous low which could be the low you are seeing now the week of 07/13/08. It would also be wise to purchase Bear funds that go up in value as the markets go down. So if you get a chance to sell when the Dow reaches those levels I highly suggest you do so. If I'm wrong and the 20% close above 11,750 does occur just simply buy them back. You would then be looking at possible new highs on the Dow, leaving very little on the table but knowing your going higher.